Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 192024 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 420 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY... COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES AND THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WIDESPREAD AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT IN A VEERING WIND PROFILE. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. ANOTHER REGION OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN NC SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL GA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING A REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS AREA HAS SHOWN AN INCREASING TREND IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS BRING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CLEARED CENTRAL NC BY AROUND 200 AM. A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 800 PM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE RAH CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED BUT NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT...A TRANSITORY AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A ONE OR TWO HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...URBAN AREAS AND TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND YADKIN VALLEY AREAS ARE MOST AT RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A LIMITED DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHEAST BREEZE AT 10-15 MPH THAT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. -BLAES
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 420 PM SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAINLY FROM THE 21 TO 06Z TIME FRAME AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION PUSHES EAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT IF A LESS LINEAR AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE OCCURS... MORE LIKELY EARLIER IN THE EVENT...THAN A INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 78 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 52 TO 60 RANGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO CENTRAL NC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE LOW END. NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH (EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO THE MID/UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SPREADING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE WORKED OUT. REGARDLESS...WILL SHOW POPS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH (AS OF NOW AT LEAST) DRIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY... 24 HOUR PERIOD...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR AND LIFR LEVELS AT TIMES AND MVFR VSBYS BECOMING IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AND A BRIEF RELAXING OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF LIKELY. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 05Z. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z...MOST COMMONLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY BELOW 1KFT AND FREQUENTLY LESS THAN 500 FT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING WITH A SCT-BKN CUMULUS LAYER DEVELOPING AND RANGING BETWEEN 3-4KFT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...BLAES

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