Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 021900 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY... THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS. WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN. WILL JUST INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY... A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT. ANOTHER BENIGN DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA (PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FRI-SAT.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY... SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...22

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