Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 041132
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
732 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN VA EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THE
WEAK VORTEX HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT MID LEVELS ATOP
A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING THAT GIVE WAY TO PARTLY
AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE THICKEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TRIAD. GUIDANCE INCLUDING SOME HIGH RES CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
THE SAME GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON THIS POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING. SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES NEAR THE YADKIN VALLEY AS A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT EAST
INTO THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES THAT START OFF 5-10M WARMER. WILL FORECAST HIGHS OF
79 NORTHWEST TO 83 SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC AND WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE MIXED LAYER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS NOT AS DEEP AS TODAY AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...STILL BELIEVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION REACHING CENTRAL NC IS LIMITED.
THE FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD DEPTH IS WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY
SUGGESTING CONVECTION MAY HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING EAST AND IN FACT
MAIN DRIFT SOUTH OR REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL OMIT POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST SOME SHALLOW STRATUS
MAY APPROACH THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 79-84 RANGE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

     MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST STILL CLOUDED BY POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXPECTED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... WITH RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF CAMPS
STILL EXIST ON THE POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TRENDS OF RECENT GFS RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS
ALONG WITH THE GEFS/ECENS/CANADIAN ALL FAVOR AT LEAST A MORE
WESTWARD POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE... WHILE AT LEAST THE 12Z/03
ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL/UKMET LIE FARTHER EAST. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
GFS ACTUALLY PULLS THE LOW PRESSURE WELL WESTWARD AND INLAND OVER SC
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HPC CONTINUED TO FAVOR USING THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND KEEPING THE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST.

THE HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AND HAS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM... IF IT DEVELOPS... MAY HAVE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT
APPEARS THAT THE FARTHER NORTH THE SYSTEM TRACKS... THE LESS IN THE
WAY OF TROPICAL SUPPORT IT WOULD HAVE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
WATER TEMPERATURES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

OBVIOUSLY... THE ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL GO A GREAT WAY IN DETERMINING IF OUR REGION WILL GET
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.

FINALLY... THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE AND POSSIBLY THE MID/UPPER
SOUTHEASTERN US CUT OFF LOW MAY FINALLY GET A BIT OF A KICKER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST FINALLY PULLS OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST INCREASING OUR SW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS... WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK. LOWS LATER IN THE WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
60 OR EVEN 65. HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE EXTENDS INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
TODAY AND DRIFT EAST...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS REMAINS VERY SMALL AND WILL BE OMITTED
FROM THE TAF. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AT 8-10KFT THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MORE PROMINENT CLOUD DECK OF SCT-BKN CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 7-10KFT. A LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERLY WIND FROM
190- 220 DEGREES AT 5-10 KTS IS EXPECTED TODAY.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
AND PERSIST DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEK ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL STORM SYSTEM TO
ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BLAES



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