Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 292041
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
141 PM PDT WED APR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PACNW
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE BASIN AND RANGE TONIGHT. A NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL HELP KEEP
SURFACE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RATHER MILD TONIGHT. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. 12Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT GENERALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ALL BUT WASHES
OUT BY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK IN THE 70S SIERRA AND 80S
LOWER ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY COULD EVEN BE WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR SOME
WESTERN NV VALLEYS INCLUDING RENO. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THU-FRI
WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE SIERRA. SO
WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER MONO
AND MINERAL COUNTIES THURSDAY AND THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD TO
RENO-TAHOE FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PRESENTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT
WE`RE ALREADY ANALYZING THERMAL TROUGHS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
AND SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. AS SUCH, ONLY MODEST CHANGES
WERE MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST.

THERMAL TROUGH PLACEMENT OVER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NEVADA INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT
THICKNESS RIDGE OVER THE SIERRA AS WELL. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT CONVERGENT
ZONES WITH AN EASTWARD STORM MOTION INTO NEVADA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOONS. THE TWO THICKNESS RIDGES MAY ALSO INDICATE A CHAOTIC
INITIATION BEFORE THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR KICKS CELLS OFF THE TERRAIN.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
SATURDAY SPREADING NORTHWARD EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN REINTRODUCED FOR NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE LASSEN
CONVERGENCE ZONE. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
ADDITIONAL LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY AS CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CONTAMINATION INCREASES. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BACK TO
AVERAGE, WITH A TROUGH DROPPING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. LOCALLY
BREEZY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH. WITH DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN HOUR
OR SO OF FOG AT KTRK AROUND 14/15Z. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES GUSTING
UP TO 25KTS. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT TURNING FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON

CHANCES OF PULSE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAINLY OCCURRING IN THE SIERRA. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STARTS IN
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES AND CREEPS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA
BY MONDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE CELLS.

A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST BY TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.
MORE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO THE NEVADA
INTERIOR. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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