Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 280527
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1127 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LOW CENTER THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND HAS NOW PROPAGATED
ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS BORDER. THE OUTER CLOUD BAND OF
THE THICKEST CLOUD DECK EXTENDING OUT FROM THE LOW CENTER SEEMS
TO HAVE MOVED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS CASPER WHERE THEY ARE HOLDING TOUGH
WITH AN OVERCAST DECK OF 1700 FEET. NORTH AND WEST OF THERE AND
UNDERNEATH THE SLOWLY EXITING THINNER HIGH AND MID CLOUD
DECKS...LOWER STRATUS AND STRATOCU/CUMULUS DECKS ARE SLOWLY BREAKING
APART WITH THE LOWER BROKEN DECK AT AROUND 3K SITUATED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY...UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN...WIND RIVER BASIN AND
NORTHEAST TO JOHNSON COUNTY. THE FAR WEST AND BIG HORN BASIN ARE IN
THE CLEAR. CASPER WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OFF ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT IN
AREAS THAT HAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND ALBEIT NOT THE
BEST SOUNDING PROFILE FOR FOG TO FORM SO WE ARE LOOKING AT SHALLOW
PATCHY FOG THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST AREAS. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
OUR WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO DURING THE DAY
PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ADDED IN ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. NOTHING SPECIAL BUT
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR 100-200 J/KG WITH THE
FRONT/TERRAIN PROVIDING SOME FOCUS. MODEST MID LEVEL WESTERLIES MAY
AID IN A LITTLE SHEAR ALSO. THESE SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS MAY DRIFT
INTO THE ERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING. TAIL END OF THIS WEAK WAVE
MAY HELP WITH SOME FAR SRN STORMS ON FRIDAY. ONE OTHER ITEM WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WED NGT/THU IS SOME MODEST MTN WAVE SIGNATURE WITH
INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COULD BE QUITE WINDY FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE FOOTHILLS
BEFORE THE FRONT SHUTS OFF THE WIND. NOT SEEING HIGH WIND RIGHT NOW
BUT ENOUGH TO ADD IN SOME WINDY CONDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE
FAR NORTH WILL BE CLOSE TO AID IN ISOLD MAINLY MTN SHOWERS/STORMS.
ON SATURDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AND A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE MAY TRY TO EDGE UP FROM THE SOUTH. STILL IN DOUBT ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE MAY OR MAY NOT BE LIFTED NWD BUT WILL KEEP IN OUR
ISOLD IN THE SOUTH HALF. MOISTURE FROM THE NRN STREAM WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE NORTHERN MTNS. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVE SUNDAY WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH UP AGAINST THE DIVIDE WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AIDING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY LIFT NE WHILE THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS AS A POTENTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CA MONDAY. BOTTOM
LINE...AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

MVFR CEILINGS OVER NATRONA COUNTY...INCLUDING AT KCPR...ARE EXPECTED
TO ERODE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH A DECENT POSSIBLITY OF FOG AND
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 12Z. THE REST OF THE AREA
COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG...BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. FOG
AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT BY AROUND
16Z. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECTING SKC TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL FOG/LOW CLOUDS AT ANY
TERMINAL...AND WILL HAVE VCFG AT MOST/ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO BE
ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY INCLUDING KRKS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

OUR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY AND SHALLOW PATCHY FOG OVER MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER BUT WITH NO WIND
CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WELL BUT THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER AND QUICKER SYSTEM GRAZING THE AREA
WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS TO ABOVE 25 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
HUMIDITIES POTENTIALLY INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS RAWLINS AND
PORTIONS OF CASPER DISPATCH DURING THE DAY...LATEST MODELS ARE
EVEN BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN DURING THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH A WETTING RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT
GIVEN HOW MUCH THE DETAILS OF THIS SOLUTION HAVE CHANGED OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THERE COULD BE SOME MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST
BEFORE THE DAY ARRIVES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON







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