Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KRLX 240829 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 330 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --NAM AND GFS STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. RUC13 SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE RUC FOR THIS MORNING. EXPECT DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS TO MODEL TIMING.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS AS WELL AS HPC SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND A TRAILING TROF MOVES IN THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS SUGGEST THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE A WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. WITH EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE THANKSGIVING DAY... CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLAND COUNTIES ON FRIDAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER SCRIPTS THAT FORECASTS SNOW AMOUNTS SUGGEST THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NAM AND GFS STRUGGLING WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. NAM IS ALREADY WAY OFF BASE AT 03Z. RUC13 APPEARS TO HAVE THE CLOSEST GRASP OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THEREFORE WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE RUC FOR THE CLEARING HOLE THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO FORM. AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MDP/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH/MDP AVIATION...RPY
