Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251503 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MESOSCALE UPDATE 1100 AM... EARLIER SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ALONG THE H850 FRONT AS IT MADE ITS WAY INTO E OH AND N WV THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE SFC WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU E KY AND S WV. LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRA. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS AFTN PROGRESSES...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL... THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925 MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP. WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA. A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL. PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST. TOO MARGINAL AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES. THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS. HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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