Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261808 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 208 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CHILLY NORTH FLOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. DRY TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE LAST STRATUS HOLDOUTS IN SE WV/SW VA. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL TRY TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS LEADS TO SOME FROST CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN NE KY/SE OH/AND THE WV LOWLANDS. CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WONT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE FOR A HEADLINE. ALSO COMPLICATING MATTERS IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. THUS...WILL ROLL WITH PATCHY WORDING IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...A FAST MOVING S/W TROF WILL PIVOT DOWN WITHIN OVERALL MEAN TROF. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AMID STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE SCT SHRA...ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP JUST ISOLATED WORDING OVER THE C AND S WV LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP NE KY/SW VA DRY. MAINLY LOOKING AT SOME CELLULAR SPLASH AND DASH TYPE SHRA. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE IN SNOW FLAK FORM AND HAVE AROUND A TENTH OF ACCUMULATION AT SNOWSHOE. LOOKING AT QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE...SO AFTER SOME MORNING SUN...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION MAKERS DURING THIS PERIOD IN THIS WET MONTH OF APRIL. 2 500 MB SHORT WAVES IN THE COLDER N/NW FLOW. THE FIRST SHOULD BE EXITING SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 12Z MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE. SECOND ONE DROPS INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AOB 10 THSD FT UNDER MID LEVEL CAP. COULD NOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW AOA 4000 FEET INTO MONDAY EVENING. THINKING THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL TEND TO THIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. YET STILL IN THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF THOUGH...SO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE. THIS MAKES MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT. HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE FROST THRESHOLD. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR DAWN TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY NOT A SURE BET. NO MAJOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...STILL DRY. NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB CLOSED LOW ONLY SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD US TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. WILL TRY TO DELAY INCREASING POPS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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PESKY LOW STRATUS AND FG IN SE WV/SW VA WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 20Z...GIVING KBKW VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU ON MONDAY WITH STRATOCU DEVELOPING INT HE 4 TO 5 THSD FT RANGE...PERHAPS SOME MVFR N MOUNTAINS. SCT SHRA EXPECT TO DEVELOP IN THE N MOUNTAINS AND N WV LOWLANDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCKB/KEKN JUST BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY MIDDAY AND AFTN...WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AT THE TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KEKN FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...30

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