Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 061035 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 635 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6 AM UPDATE. A BIT MORE EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG... OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE FRONT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH WITH NO DIRECT EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW HOLDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. THUS...THE ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. ONE CHANGE WOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STILL NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO CONFIDENTLY MENTION SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS...EXCEPT AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WHERE THE CONVECTION MAY TRY TO PROPAGATE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AS SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL AND WARM AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL TRY TO MAKE IT OVER THE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM LOW ALONG THE COAST...AND SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND LESS HUMID AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY... WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE...WITH NOT MANY FEATURES TO GRASP/CLUTCH AND RUN WITH. TIL 16Z. PATCHY IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG...MAINLY AT EKN...CKB AND PKB TIL 13Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SCT MID CLOUDS. AFTER 16Z...THANKS TO A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. DRY ELSEWHERE. PREVAILING VFR... SCT CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FEET AGL LOW LANDS. SCT-BKN 4000-7000 FEET AGL IN THE MOUNTAINS...BRIEFLY LOWER IN A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER 01Z...GENERALLY SCT MID CLOUDS...OCCASIONALLY BKN IN MOUNTAINS...THEN MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING MAJOR TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY 4 TO 8 MPH THIS AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE...VERY LIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON CLOUDS...AND RAIN FROM TODAY...THERE MAY BE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG THAN FORECAST TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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