Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181346 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 946 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FADES TODAY. WARM FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY HERALDS A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...AS IT IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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945AM UPDATE... ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME FRINGE OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES TODAY AND SHIFTS E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AS NRN AND SRN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE W. THE NRN STREAM ONE DIGS INTO ND BY 12Z SUN WHILE THE SRN STREAM FEATURE...A CLOSED LOW COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...OPENS UP AS IT TRAVERSES THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. SFC LOWS ARE FOUND E OF EACH UPPER FEATURE...BUT A WARM WAVE LOW ALSO FORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM FEATURE OVER THE DEEP S LATER TODAY AND REACHES THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUN...IN RESPONSE TO A LEAD S/W TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SRN STREAM TROUGH. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING FADES AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS SEWD INTO ERN CANADA...AND DRIVES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DOWN THE E COAST. IT...AND THE WARM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W...INCREASES THE SE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MANAGED TO FILTER DOWN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BUT DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH IN AND NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS RESULTED IN DENSE VALLEY FOG E OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY LIFT INTO STRATUS AND THEN MORNING CU. THIS SHOULD THEN MIX OUT...BUT EXPECT ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE CU TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY MID LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING FARTHER DESPITE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE CU MAY TOWER A LITTLE OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUD AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION REACHING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SW VA AND CHANCE ALONG THE TUG FORK...AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM THE WARM WAVE...APPROACHES FROM THE S. CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUGGESTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS FOR TODAY WHILE BLENDING IN OF CLUSTERED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE YIELDED HIGHER LOWS FOR TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD AND WIND INCREASE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. EXPECTING RATHER GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. STILL AT THIS POINT NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT FLOODING ISSUES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A RATHER DECENT SOAKER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND UPPER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THIS STILL REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...BUT DID KEEP THE WV LOWLANDS WARMER DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR MID WEEK AS UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA TO START THE LONG TERM...AND HAVE DECREASING POPS MONDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND HAVE SOME PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BLENDED IN WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DENSE FOG CKB AND EKN WILL BURN OFF FIRST HOUR...LIFTING BRIEFLY INTO STRATUS FRACTUS. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH MORNING CU EXPECTED...BUT CU WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE S...AND LOWER TO AROUND 5 KFT BY DAWN SUNDAY. BKW WILL LIKELY PICK UP AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK ON STRENGTHENING SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE BY TO THE S BY DAWN SUNDAY. LIGHT N TO NE SFC FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT E TO SE TONIGHT...FRESHENING A BIT LATE...BECOMING GUSTY ON THE HIGHER RIDGES INCLUDING BKW. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHT SE TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE SE BY DAWN SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOSS OF IFR CKB AND EKN FIRST THING THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING AND HEIGHT OF STRATOCU CIGS AT BKW COULD VARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOSTLY SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

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