Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051827 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 225 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE...WITH NOT MANY FEATURES TO GRASP/CLUTCH AND RUN WITH. NARROW CAPE TO AROUND 25 THSD FT DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL EXPAND AREA OF 20 POPS FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS INTO EARLY EVENING IN LOWLANDS...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. DID ADD SOME THICKER FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING ELKINS. WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...STILL FAVORING THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AOA MOS GUIDANCE. MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL THAT CLOUDS COULD FORM THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...MAKING MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TOUGHER. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY...SO CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THERE. THE 700 MB RIDGE CENTER TO OUR E TRIES TO GIVE A WEAK E FLOW INTO SW VA...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS EXTENDING SW TO OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES A TOUCH MORE DOMINANT. THEREFORE...BEST FORCING WILL BE FROM THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES IN THE HIGHLANDS OF THE EASTERN CWA WHILE THE BULK OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S...SO THIS WILL RAISE THE LOWER LIMIT ON THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE INCREASED SURFACE DRYING WILL LEAD TO A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN THE AFTERNOON HIGHS. IT IS NOT GOING TOO FAR TO CALL THIS A HEAT WAVE RELATIVE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE IN THE 10-15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LONG TERM PERIOD BY BLENDING IN WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION FIRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE...WITH NOT MANY FEATURES TO GRASP/CLUTCH AND RUN WITH. NARROW CAPE TO AROUND 25 THSD FT DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON WARM TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED CELLS FOR A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE IN LOWLANDS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. DID ADD SOME THICKER FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...THIS INCLUDES EKN. PATCHES OF CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CEILINGS AT 3 TO 6 THSD FT BKN DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z IN DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHES OF CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER AND CAUSE LESS FOG FORMATION THAN FORECAST IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KTB

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