Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311031 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 631 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT. LOW PASSES NORTH WITH COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. WARMER THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE A LOW QPF EVENT. WINDS WILL GUST SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY IN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THE HELP OF MIXING. BUT...925MB WINDS ARE ONLY SHOWING 20-30KTS AND WILL BE UPGLIDING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLDER AIR DESCENDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO COULD SOME GOOD GUSTS WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA...BUT SHOULD LOSE THOSE PRETTY QUICK INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPPED THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY AND THINK SOME 70S HERE AND THERE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TRI STATE/KANAWHA VALLEY/COAL FIELDS AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER A BRIEF APPEARANCE BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITHIN A MULTIPLE STREAM ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMING OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY...THEN SLOW AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...THANKS TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE AREA. WHILE DETAILS ON EACH WAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE FRONT ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT AMONG THE MODELS...THE AGREED SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA SPELLS A GENERAL WIDESPREAD REGIME FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A WELL DEFINED INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FEEDS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. SO...NICE AND DRY AND WARM WEDNESDAY UNDER SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN A WET AND COOLING TREND THURSDAY DUE MAINLY TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR ON COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER...AIR NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW AT THIS TIME. MODELS DO PUSH FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING EARLY...AS DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A RATHER UNSETTLED END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWED BY A SURFACE WAVE. WILL BE WATCHING THE TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY WATER ISSUES ARISE. THE EASTER WEEKEND...THOUGH...IS SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND THEN EASING OVERNIGHT AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND 6SM -SHRA IN EKN IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE 21Z TIME FRAME TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTS MAY NEED TO BE UPPED SLIGHTLY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... THERE ARE A FEW KEYS TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY. FIRST OF ALL...LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOULD ONLY HAVE A COUPLE HOURS DURING MIXING WHERE THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 900-880MB LAYER WILL DROP BELOW -10C...SO THINK THE GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE. ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOUDS AND POPS SHOULD KEEP THE RH VALUES FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR BY ADDING MINIMAL PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND KEEPING THE MAX TEMPS IN CHECK. WIND VELOCITIES ARE THE STRONGEST PROPONENT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...AND 30-40KTS OVER THE RIDGES. FUEL STICK MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE BORDERLINE ON THE 8 PERCENT RANGE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ FIRE WEATHER...26

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