Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041915 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 315 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT IN LWR MI NEAR ARB AND IN NRN IL NEAR ORD. BASING FORECAST ON FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR I-70 CORRIDOR AND OUR PERRY COUNTY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...OR THE END OF THIS NEAR TERM. A BIT MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURG TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOUT 40 POP ACROSS THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...TONIGHT...WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST INTO THE RIDGE...BUT HEIGHTS STILL TRYING TO RISE. SO FAIRLY WEAK SUPPORT...AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THOUGH HAVE SURFACE DEWS INCREASING INTO THE 50S. WILL GENERALLY STAY AOB NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE POPS...BUT STILL AROUND A 40 POP MOVING W TO E ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND OUR NORTHERN WV COUNTIES TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS. COOLEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH WITH LESS CLOUDS AND WIND. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO HAVE SOME POPS WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL...CENTERED TO THE SW OF THE CWA...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LONG TERM PERIOD BY BLENDING IN WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION FIRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO MEDIUM. WITH FRONT STILL WELL TO THE NORTH...TRYING TO STAY BELOW GUIDANCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCES TRYING TO RIDE EAST INTO THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...500 MB HEIGHTS DO NOT EVEN LOWER. HAVE CEILINGS BECOMING 4 TO 8 THSD FT BKN IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. INCLUDED A VCSH FOR PKB TO CKB. MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TOWARD END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...OR 18Z TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO OR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BUT THINKING AFTER 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE MORE THAN FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO 12Z TUESDAY...WITH SOME BRIEF 5 MILES VSBY EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KTB

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