Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252304 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 657 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL... THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT STRATOCU AREAWIDE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...30

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