Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030525 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 125 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASE THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 800 PM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE EVE UPDATE...JUST SOME TLC TO THE GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN MORE DRIER AIR AT THE HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...AFTER ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL START. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH AN AMPLE UPPER RIDGE WITH RELAXED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...SFC CHARTS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND FLOW TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOGETHER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND JUICER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OR BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...SHY TO REACH ONE INCH...CREATE MARGINAL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING SKINNY CAPE FEATURE. ALLOWED LOW POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS. THEREFORE...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80 TO 85...WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DUE TO CONTINUING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...USED A BLEND OF ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MID WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE FRONT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HAVE KEPT THE MVFR FOG IN AT CRW AND EKN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE....NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...WITH A FEW-SCT DECK AT OR ABOVE 4KFT. WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AGAIN TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST MAY NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/RPY NEAR TERM...JS/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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