Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231810 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT. THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND... ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD. THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT STARTED YET. LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>031-033-034. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JSH

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