Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041816 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 210 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AT 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT IN LWR MI NEAR ARB AND IN NRN IL NEAR ORD. BASING FORECAST ON FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR I-70 CORRIDOR AND OUR PERRY COUNTY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...OR THE END OF THIS NEAR TERM. A BIT MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURG TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOUT 40 POP ACROSS THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...TONIGHT...WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST INTO THE RIDGE...BUT HEIGHTS STILL TRYING TO RISE. SO FAIRLY WEAK SUPPORT...AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THOUGH HAVE SURFACE DEWS INCREASING INTO THE 50S. WILL GENERALLY STAY AOB NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE POPS...BUT STILL AROUND A 40 POP MOVING W TO E ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND OUR NORTHERN WV COUNTIES TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS. COOLEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH WITH LESS CLOUDS AND WIND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY WITH PBZ THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL DICTATE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES OVER NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. ALSO KEEPING POPS IN THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE REGIONS IN OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. CONVECTION MAY OR MAY NOT INITIATE IN OUR CWA...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS INDICATE STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS IS TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE FLOW THURSDAY...AND HAVE ONLY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SPC KEEPS ANY RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WELL NORTH AND WEST FOR THE CWA. IN THE MEANT TIE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARDS...WITH THE LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP OUT OF THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO MEDIUM. WITH FRONT STILL WELL TO THE NORTH...TRYING TO STAY BELOW GUIDANCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCES TRYING TO RIDE EAST INTO THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...500 MB HEIGHTS DO NOT EVEN LOWER. HAVE CEILINGS BECOMING 4 TO 8 THSD FT BKN IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. INCLUDED A VCSH FOR PKB TO CKB. MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TOWARD END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...OR 18Z TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO OR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BUT THINKING AFTER 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE MORE THAN FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO 12Z TUESDAY...WITH SOME BRIEF 5 MILES VSBY EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...KTB

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