Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151824 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 224 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE RUNNING FROM LAWRENCE OHIO THROUGH RLX AND INTO FAYETTE COUNTY. DEVELOPING LINE OF SHOWERS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY...BUT IS ISOLATED TO ABOUT 25 MILES WIDE. NAM DOES A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THIS IN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PROGS...AND WILL SEE THIS FEATURE DRIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL SEE A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. NO THUNDER FOR THIS FORECAST WITH ZERO SURFACE BASED CAPE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH CAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL KY. BUT THIS INSTABILITY NEVER MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE...CODED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...CAPE VALUES INCREASES OVER THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN UPPER WAVE GENERATE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DECREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SRN STREAM DOMINATES THE CWA EARLY ON...WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE FRI NT INTO SAT. A NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH MAY STILL DIG FAR ENOUGH S TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT AT LEAST INTO THE AREA LATE SAT. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF DRY TO ONLY SCHC POPS AT LEAST ACROSS THE N SAT NT INTO SUN. SRN STREAM UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE DEEP S LATER SUN INTO MON AND CROSSES THE CWA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW PHASING WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW ONCE THAT FEATURE IS PASSED THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A MILLER B TYPE SFC EVOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING PRIMARY LOW THROUGH THE AREA SUN NT INTO MON. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRYING DAY 7 NT. TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER EARLY ON BUT OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WITH NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM WPC INCLUDING THE NEW DAY 7. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR PREVAILS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASES HEADING INTO THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN...PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN TEMPORARY CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAINS. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE GUSTS IN THE TAF AT BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT VARIOUS TIMES THRU THE WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26

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