Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010654 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 254 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY SPREADING SHOWERS...MOST PLENTIFUL IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING THE CWA IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. AS MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOWEST 100MB WILL DRY OUT LEAVING CUMULUS FORMATION FOR THE LOWLANDS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL RETAIN SOME MOISTURE DEPTH ABOVE THE MIXING LAYER WHICH WILL LEAVE SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. THE CHANCES WILL BE BETTER OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WHERE LOW TOP THUNDER CHANCES EXIST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING AND THE ASSOCIATED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHER 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA...SO WILL SEE A VARIATION IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF MAX TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS ACROSS THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...AND RESIDING THERE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THIS UPPER HIGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE DOMINATING FACTOR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING. THUS...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER. IN ANY CASE...WITH A WARMING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING OVER THIS PERIOD...WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD...MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHILE SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AS WE GO TOWARDS 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. FIGURE VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE A CONSISTENT ISSUE WITH CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING CEILING TONIGHT MAY NOT DEVELOP...OR MAY NEED MORE EXTENSIVE IFR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M L H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L H M H M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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