Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301408 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1008 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1000 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. DID UPDATE MORNING POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN A CLEAN SWEEPING FASHION WITHOUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOULD SEE ONLY SOME FLAT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MIX SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT EXHIBIT THE LOW DEWPOINTS SEEN BEFORE THE CURRENT FRONT ARRIVED. AVOIDED THE MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THE ERROR POINTS WERE TOO HIGH FOR THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS. INSTEAD...OPTED FOR THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV...BUT MODIFIED HTS AND CRW WHICH LOOKED A LITTLE TOO WARM TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LAST CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH FANFARE IN THE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF BY ALL THE MODELS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND THUS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GENERALLY CONFINE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS. IN ANY CASE...ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST FEATURE...QUITE WARM TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THIS CHANGE LEADS TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE MEAN SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPPED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE ESTABLISHED WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT...THE RESULT IN GENERAL WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH BY SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. QUITE WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COOLER FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG ONCE MIXING BEGINS...SO HAVE THE MVFR CEILINGS DISSOLVING IN THE TAFS FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BRING SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS ABOVE 4KFT. A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED BRIEF IFR IN BKW THIS MORNING. TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR SO. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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