Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 032357 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 743 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 745 PM UPDATE... WENT A BIT LOWER FOR LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN RECENT WARM BIAS IN SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID FALL IN TEMPS THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF URBAN CENTERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FEW CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...LEAVE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY...SO ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AN APPROACHING FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...MODELS DO INDICATE AN ALMOST SUMMER LIKE DIRTY UPPER RIDGE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY NORTH WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMING UNDER THE DIRTY UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE OF A FACTOR. THE LEAST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS NO REAL GOOD FOCUS TO GO MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN AREAS AFOREMENTIONED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INYO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME HIGHER BASED CU TOMORROW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN BR COULD DEVELOP IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/04/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...JSH/30 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JSH/30

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