Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 292302 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 649 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WINTRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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