Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301807 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 207 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INSTABILITY SHOWERS THEN LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS/SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO OH TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS CENTER. TONIGHT THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING EAST. FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...NORTHEAST OH...AND SOUTHWEST VA TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT ABUNDANT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING PERIODS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S LOWLANDS...INTO THE MID 50S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TO START THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA...AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS THERE ON FRIDAY...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN WV AND DRYING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS OUT TO SEA. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP PER THE NAM/ECMWF. THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ALSO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS ON SATURDAY...BUT ARE NOT PRINTING OUT ANY QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...ALMOST TRIES TO COMBINE THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND IS MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIP ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW STUCK CLOSER TO THE NAM/ECMWF. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN AT THE SURFACE...THINK WE SHOULD BE TO STABLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR SHOWERS. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN PEAKING OUT LATE IN THE WEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL WARMER IF WE DO INDEED STAY DRY AND SEE MORE OF SUNSHINE. MAY BE TOO WARM ON SATURDAY IF GFS IS RIGHT AND WE SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE NAEFS MEAN AND THE ECENS MEAN. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID WEEK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITION WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALONG WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER OH...AND IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE KY/WV BORDER BY 00Z. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST...FIRST AFFECTING PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. THEN...IT WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN SITES TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN NOTICED FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT BKW WHEN THE LINE PASS THROUGH THERE...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCORPORATED IN TAF AT THIS TIME. MODELS SUGGEST LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MOST PLACES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...THEREFORE...FOG WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AT MOST PLACES...EXCEPT ALONG DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. LOW CEILINGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH 13-14Z MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF -SHRA AND -TSRA MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. LOWERING CEILING TONIGHT MAY TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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