Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231029 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 629 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY...AND MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AIR FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHEAST OHIO TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE AREA RAWS SITES ARE ALREADY SHOWING DECENT DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES FROM YESTERDAYS WINDS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COLLABORATE WITH FORESTRY PARTNERS ON THIS TO DEEM IF IT IS NECESSARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A CLEARING SKY...AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BOTH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS. MUCH OF THE PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST. UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT. THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT. USED 8C DEW POINT AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION. AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING CONFLUENCE ZONE. MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE. THAT SHOULD CAUSE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG. HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES. IT WAS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED. HAVE HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>009- 013>018-024>027-033-034. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-019- 020-028>031. OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ083-085>087. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-084. KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...SL

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