Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171829 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 229 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY MAY HERALD A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LINE OF DISSIPATING SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FORCED TO HOLD ON TO SOME POPS DESPITE THE DECREASE IN ACTIVITY GIVEN THE SLOW SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY. SKY WILL DO ITS BEST TO CLEAR TONIGHT...HOWEVER A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING IN BRIEF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE...AND ALONG THE I-79 CORRIDOR AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY...KEPT SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN. MOS GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...LIFTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AND WITH OVERALL DECENT FLOW...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ALONG WELL. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WV LOWLANDS INITIALLY. THUS...AT THIS POINT...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WATER ISSUES. UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOR COOLER WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF CWA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH BOTH FEATURES...AND TRIED TO HINT AT A BREAK BETWEEN THEM. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK 500MB RIPPLES THAT SHOULD AT LEAST BRING SOME CLOUDS...AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT. LAMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LATE VALLEY FOG...FOR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT SET UP HERE IN APRIL WITH WATER TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD...BUT RECENT RAIN LEAVING A MOIST SURFACE WILL AID IN THE LATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN/12 SATURDAY...A LOW LEVEL LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN BKW. OTHERWISE...VFR IS THE NORM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS IN QUESTION AS SEEN BY THE CONSISTENCY CHART BELOW. ALSO...IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H M H M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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