Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 070207 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1007 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. PREVIEW OF SUMMER CONTINUES. SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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1005 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. 725 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. TWEAKED T/TD/WIND BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NEAR 18Z...W OF APPALACHIANS FRONT STALLED OUT...BUT STILL SINKING SOUTH...EAST OF MOUNTAINS TOWARD EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WV. PREVIEW OF SUMMER CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE TEMPS IN THE 50S IN NRN PENNSYLVANIA AT 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A SECONDARY MAXIMUM IN CU DEVELOPMENT E TO W NR MGW WSW TOWARD UNI. WITH THAT ENHANCEMENT OF CU...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP A BIT FURTHER WEST IN OUR NRN WV LOWLANDS...BUT CURRENTLY NOT ACROSS OUT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO BIG CHANGES IN OUR FORECAST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FLOW AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER NR HTS-CRW SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...NORTHERN CONVECTION SHOULD STILL MOVE ESE. HAVE AREAS OF FOG MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN THE SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES IN THE USUAL WARM SPOTS IN SW WV THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH 89 FOR CRW. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER MOUNTAINS 16-17Z THEN SOME CELLS COULD DRIFT W TOWARD WESTERN LOWLANDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE AS AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOT HUMID AIR...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH KEEPING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW ALONG THE COAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL...SUMMERLIKE PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SWEEPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE TAP/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WITH DECENT FLOW...STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG WELL. DRIER...COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPECT THOSE TO BE ON THE DECREASE NOW THAT WE ARE GETTING AWAY FROM PEAK HEATING. WEAK FLOW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BE THE STORY TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE THIS LEADING TO RIVER VALLEY FOG...AND STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LAV FOR TIMING AND DENSITY OF THE FOG. THIS KEEPS MVFR ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...WITH IFR AT CKB AND EKN. EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING ACROSS THE EAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY. SHOULD A SHOWER/TSTORM CROSS A TAF SITE...MVFR TO IFR WOULD BE POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/07/15 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L M H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ

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