Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011838
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BRINGING CALM
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A STRATO CU LAYER OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH MODERATE
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE DISSIPATING BEFORE
SUNSET.

WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...AND RESIDING THERE THRU AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THIS UPPER HIGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE DOMINATING
FACTOR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LACKING UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGING. THUS...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER.
IN ANY CASE...WITH A WARMING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKING OVER THIS PERIOD...WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD...MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS STRUGGLED TO LIFT AT BKW TODAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 21Z. REST OF SITES UNDER MVFR CEILINGS ATTM.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEARING SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AT PKB AND HTS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. DIURNAL CU CAN DEVELOP OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE ALL TOGETHER BY
00Z.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH
CHANCES ARE LOW. CODED VCTS AT EKN FOR THIS REASON. WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
PERIODS OF CLEARING AND LINGERING MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE PATCHY
FOG ON OUR DEEPER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. CODED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
BKW AND EKN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SOME DIURNAL CU COULD
DEVELOP TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLIMBING CEILINGS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ








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