Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 021922
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
311 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASE THIS
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN MORE
DRIER AIR AT THE HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PICK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AFTER ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL START.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH AN AMPLE UPPER RIDGE WITH RELAXED FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...SFC CHARTS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND FLOW
TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOGETHER WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND JUICER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA OR BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WV BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER...SHY TO REACH ONE INCH...CREATE MARGINAL
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING
SHOWING SKINNY CAPE FEATURE.  ALLOWED LOW POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.  THEREFORE...KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 80 TO 85...WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO CONTINUING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...USED A BLEND OF
ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MID WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK
NORTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT
IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY. CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE FRONT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF MVFR IN RIVER FOG AT CRW AND EKN BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT
THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JS









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