Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241849 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY. FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO SURPASS LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM CONCENTRATING ON CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND VA...WHILE OTHER CONCENTRATE MORE ON THE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL WV. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT PREFER TO LET THE MODELS LOCK ONTO THE SITUATION A BIT BETTER FIRST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ENERGY...PROVIDING SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSED. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ON MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CUTOFF LOW DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALOFT DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SLINGING THE FRINGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALL IN ALL...THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE WITHOUT ANY DIRECT HITS FROM UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIDGING ALOFT FINALLY LOOKS TO RETURN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH AND E WV SLOPES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...30

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