Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241412 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1015 AM UPDATE... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPIRED FRZ WARNING AND FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS TDY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS. JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL TAKE A HIT...ESPECIALLY IN SE WV AND SW VA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HILLTOPS AND E SLOPES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO +10 NEAR GRUNDY. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL NORTH AND EAST. FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS. A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST. WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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