Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210805 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 405 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AIR TAKING OVER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL SEE COOLER WEATHER TODAY. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DRIER TODAY...WILL SEE RATHER GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL EXIST...AND BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES IN THE 30 KTS RANGE TODAY. POSSIBLE PERRY COUNTY COULD HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40 KT GUSTS...BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL OCCUR OVER A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. INSTEAD...WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD TRIGGER A LIGHT SHOWER...BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT...DUE TO THE DRY AIR...WILL SEE JUST SPRINKLES AT BEST. DECIDED TO JUST PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SWEEPING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE A CHANCE OF POPS IN TONIGHT INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THIS OCCURS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT ENTERS AREA RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NE CONUS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND EVEN BEYOND...AS IT MEANDERS AND DUMBBELLS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FRONT...EXTENDING SWWD FROM A SFC LOW TRACKING ENEWD INTO PA...WILL TRAVERSE THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WED. EXTENDED LIKELY POPS DOWN TO THE TUG FORK WED MORNING BASED ON THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND SWD EXTENT OF UPPER DYNAMICS. FRONTAL TIMING AND INFLOW AHEAD OF IT SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...JUST BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES. ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN BE STRONG GIVEN THE FAST FLOW...AND A LOW FREEZING LEVEL COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL...BUT FAST MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES OF 3/4 OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL PRECLUDE ANY WATER PROBLEMS. W FLOW PREVAILS FOLLOWING THE FRONT THROUGH THU NT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRI. COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD WANE BY THU MORNING AS THE COLD ADVECTION CUTS OFF. HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU ATOP THE MIXING LAYER ACROSS THE N THU. USED NAM / MET FOR TEMPERATURES WED. TEMPERATURES CAN PEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER. USED ALLBLEND FOR HIGHS THU AND THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI WAS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR LOWS AT OR BELOW PREVIOUS THU MORNING...AND THE MEX FOR LOWER LOWS FRI MORNING. THIS LEADS TO A TOUCH OF FROST THU MORNING AND A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FRI MORNING...FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL A FAST WNW STEERING FLOW AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. SO TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU PERIOD FOR LATE APRIL. FOCAL POINT WILL BE CHECKING WITH PARTNERS...ON WHEN TO START UP THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM. MAIN DILEMMA IS THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. TREND TODAY WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH TO INCREASE POPS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE POPS INTO THE LIKELY POP RANGE OVER SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA FOR SATURDAY. COLD AIR LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FLAKES OVER TALL WV MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY BY DAY 7 NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS...ACROSS EASTERN WV...WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY 12Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING NEAR SITES KEKN AND KBKW THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TODAY HOWEVER...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 KTS RANGE DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z...AND LASTING THROUGH 00-02Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH -SHRA DEVELOPING AS IT DOES SO. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER MORE OVERNIGHT IF CLOUDS DO NOT SCATTER OUT AS QUICKLY. WIND GUSTS ON TUESDAY COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/21/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...SL

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