Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271816 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 216 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF AREA TONIGHT. DRY TUESDAY. MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH WEDNESDAY FROM WEAKENING SOUTHERN SYSTEM. NORTHERN TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 3500-4000 FEET...ANY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE GRAUPEL. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...GENERALLY ABOVE 3500 FEET. BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...SOME CLEARING AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE IN. THINKING SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IN COORDINATION WITH ILN...WILL HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. MORGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE IFFY. WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR THERE. WILL HAVE EVENING SHIFT KEEP AN EYE ON IT. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND SPLIT FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. OVERALL...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A STRANGE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS MID/UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF NORTHEAST COAST. OVERALL...A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IN OUR VICINITY. ANOTHER SOUTHERN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT BE TOO EAGER MOVING CHANCE POPS INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TOWARD LKLY IN THE BKW VCNTY ON SOUTH INTO SW VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SOLUTION I SAW THAT KEPT IT TOTALLY BONE DRY WAS THE CANADIAN. MEANWHILE...THE NOTABLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO DROP THIS DISTURBANCE A BIT FURTHER WEST INTO THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAD TO INCREASE POPS ON THURSDAY AND LINGER THE HIGHER POPS LONGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SEEMS TO BE THE APPROPRIATE WAY TO END THE WET MONTH OF APRIL. THOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW AN INCH...NO WATER CONCERNS WITH THESE SYSTEMS. EVEN LINGERED CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. NO MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT IN OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT A STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW THIS TIME AROUND. THINKING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER NORTH OF CRW THAN SOUTH OF CRW...BASED ON LESS CLOUDS AND DRIER. ALSO STARTED TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY BASED ON INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM MARKS A PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER...EVOLVING INTO SLIGHT RIDGING BY DAY 7. OVERALL...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE...SO WILL SEE A WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW POPS THAT DO NOT CLIMB HIGHER THAN LOW END CHANCE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH IN -SHRA FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE...PARTICULARLY AT SITES...KPKB..KCKB...AND KEKN. SITES WILL GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 10-14Z. COULD BE SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 08Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MAY GET RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...NONE. OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ066-075- 083>086. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/26 NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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