Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190231 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1019 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY HERALDS COOLER WEATHER. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...WAS A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE SHOWERS NORTH ON SUNDAY...INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. FIGURING THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DELAYED THE ONSET IN THE WESTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. AFTER THE INITIAL SUPPORT AND SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH...THE STRONG DEW POINT BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM THE TUG FORK VALLEY ON NW INTO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR UPSTREAM - TO THE WEST. CONVECTION COULD FORM TO OUR WEST AND REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EVENING. WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REACHING AS FAR EAST AS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND THE HTS TRI STATE...BUT ALSO ALONG THE KY BORDER TO INCLUDE OUR 2 IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BEFORE A COLD FRONT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TOWARD THE EARLIER PART OF THE DAY MONDAY...SO THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA AND POPS ACTUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE SPEED OF THE TWO SYSTEMS LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT COMES ACROSS...WITH A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL...WE LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BEST CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC FOR POPS/SKY/HIGH TEMPS. UNDERCUT WPC TEMPS A BIT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONFIDENCE LOWERED FROM HIGH TO MEDIUM. ONE REASON WAS TRYING TO DETERMINE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL DROP IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY. STILL CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT RANGE IN THE WESTERN DOWNSLOPE CORRIDOR AROUND CRW TO CKB AND EVEN EKN...DURING THE SHOWERS IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. THINKING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY WILL REACH THE GROUND...SO AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR LLWS IN PLACES LIKE CRW AND HTS AROUND DAWN SUNDAY IF WINDS REMAIN JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ONLY POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IS FORESEEN IN THE TRI STATE AROUND HUNTINGTON AFTER 21Z SUNDAY...WITHIN THE SHARP SW TO NE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT GRADIENT. THIS INCLUDES EXTREME SRN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA. BY 15Z SUNDAY...HAVE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING THE BKW VCNTY. WITH THAT FLOW PERSISTING...HAVE IFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THESE EASTERN SLOPES...EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TREND DOWN TOWARD 00Z MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REACH SURFACE...THEY MAY BE A FEW HOUR WIND FOR LLWS HTS-CRW VCNTY AROUND 10 TO 13Z SUNDAY. ALSO...TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF IFR CEILINGS AT BECKLEY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/19/15 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KTB

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