Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011032 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 632 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND ANOTHER DRY DAY...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES OFF THE PACE OF YESTERDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS VERY LOW ONCE AGAIN. THE DEWPOINTS AND RESULTING RH VALUES BECOME THE IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 900-800MB AIR DRIER THAN -20C. MOS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY HAS TROUBLE HANDLING THE DAYTIME MIXING OF THIS DRIER AIR DOWN...SO HAVE TAKEN THE LOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE /MET/ AND ADJUSTED THESE NUMBERS DOWNWARDS. IN THE END...WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT WITH FUEL STICK MOISTURE BELOW 8 . ONLY THE LACK OF SUSTAINED WINDS KEEPS THIS FROM BEING A RED FLAG WARNING SCENARIO. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WET END TO THE WORK WEEK. ALL AGREE A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HANG UP OR DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT UNDER PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT...AND THEREFORE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM...MODELS DO AGREE ON A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE DRYING WE HAVE HAD...ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH FOR WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO ENHANCE AMOUNTS...THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. FOR NOW...NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THERE WILL BE A BIG SWING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD...FROM WELL IN THE 70S THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE MUCH OF THE HEAVIER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN...TO THE 40S AND 50S BY SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE MOSTLY ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EASTER WEEKEND...SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING WARM BUT UNSETTLED. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... FUEL STICK MOISTURE WILL DROP BELOW 8 PERCENT...IF IT HAS EVEN BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER ABOVE THAT DURING THE MORNING HOURS NOW. DAYTIME MIXING WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE DEWPOINTS...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 MPH. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26 FIRE WEATHER...26

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