Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 312328 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 725 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER SKY COVER IN WESTERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHEAST OH...BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL TREND WAS TO TREND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM AND GO SLOWER INCREASING POPS IN OUR EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS AGREES MORE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH CWA THURSDAY MORNING. SO HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND ON THURSDAY...THE HIGHER DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US FROM RED FLAG CRITERIA. NOT IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WAS CONCERNED ABOUT TRAINING/REPETITIVE ROUNDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...DESPITE THE 35 KNOT STEERING FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THINKING ABOUT OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 TO 12 HOURS WOULD GET OUR ATTENTION. OVERALL THOUGH...IT IS TOO EARLY/PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE ANY FLOOD HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. DID INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWER...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED WAVE ACTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EASTER WEEKEND...SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING WARM BUT UNSETTLED. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY AIR AND FUELS...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN ZONES...WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL EXIST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY EXIST. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA UNTIL 8 PM EDT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>030-033>037. OH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...SL FIRE WEATHER...RPY

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