Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 181838 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 238 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY HERALDS A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW TROUGH AXIS AND A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH TRACK FROM OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AFTER 06Z...FIRST HITTING THE TUG FORK VALLEY...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEAVIER RAIN PATCHES POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY PASSING AREAS OF LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOWS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE STOUT...WITH A SOMEWHAT RARE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT COULD PEAK OUT IN THE 65KT RANGE. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK QUITE INTERESTING...BUT DRYING BELOW 900MB IN THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINTS DOWN AND THUS ELIMINATE THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY. KEEP THE INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AREA AGAIN...AND ONLY HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS REGION. ALSO OF NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP LOADING AS WELL. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND THE WARM FRONT...AND DOWN TOMORROW GIVEN THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BEFORE A COLD FRONT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TOWARD THE EARLIER PART OF THE DAY MONDAY...SO THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA AND POPS ACTUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE SPEED OF THE TWO SYSTEMS LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT COMES ACROSS...WITH A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL...WE LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BEST CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC FOR POPS/SKY/HIGH TEMPS. UNDERCUT WPC TEMPS A BIT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE DICTATED BY THE INCOMING MOISTURE...AND MODIFIED BY THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST 20-30KTS INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACTUALLY HELP TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN...AND WILL ALLOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE RAIN TO BE HANDLED BY TEMPOS LATER. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL KEEP CRW TO CKB CEILINGS ABOVE 3KFT FOR THE MOST PART DURING RAIN...WITH ENOUGH MIXING FROM THE WIND TO KEEP THE FOGGY/LOW CEILINGS FROM FORMING. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER FOR HTS AND PKB...MVFR IS MORE LIKELY...WITH BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS. AT EKN...THIS WILL BE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPING AS WELL. BKW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR IN EARLY ONSET MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOSS OF IFR CKB AND EKN FIRST THING THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING AND HEIGHT OF STRATOCU CIGS AT BKW COULD VARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.