Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 311749 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 149 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WARMER THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TOWARDS AREA...WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY...CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR ISOLD STORM POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE CWA AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN DURING HEATING. WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...ELECTED TO HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WV...NORTHEAST KY...SOUTHEAST OH...AND SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM EDT. COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL GRADUALLY SEE WINDS INITIALLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND WARM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DECENT WINDS...DONT EXPECT TO BE A HIGH FIRE WEATHER DAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER A BRIEF APPEARANCE BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITHIN A MULTIPLE STREAM ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMING OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY...THEN SLOW AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...THANKS TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE AREA. WHILE DETAILS ON EACH WAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE FRONT ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT AMONG THE MODELS...THE AGREED SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA SPELLS A GENERAL WIDESPREAD REGIME FOR SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A WELL DEFINED INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FEEDS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. SO...NICE AND DRY AND WARM WEDNESDAY UNDER SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN A WET AND COOLING TREND THURSDAY DUE MAINLY TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR ON COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER...AIR NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW AT THIS TIME. MODELS DO PUSH FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING EARLY...AS DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A RATHER UNSETTLED END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BE SLOWED BY A SURFACE WAVE. WILL BE WATCHING THE TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY WATER ISSUES ARISE. THE EASTER WEEKEND...THOUGH...IS SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
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
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY AIR AND FUELS...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN ZONES...WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL EXIST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY EXIST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA UNTIL 8 PM EDT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>030-033>037. OH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL/30 NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...SL FIRE WEATHER...SL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.