Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030650 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 250 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES INCREASE THIS WEEK IN A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SIG WX NIL. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MAY BRING SCATTERED MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TO THE TUG FORK VALLEY...BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH MORE FLAT CUMULUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY VALUES. NOT AS COOL TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AN APPROACHING FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...MODELS DO INDICATE AN ALMOST SUMMER LIKE DIRTY UPPER RIDGE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY NORTH WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMING UNDER THE DIRTY UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE OF A FACTOR. THE LEAST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS NO REAL GOOD FOCUS TO GO MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN AREAS AFOREMENTIONED.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DUE TO CONTINUING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...USED A BLEND OF ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MID WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE FRONT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HAVE KEPT THE MVFR FOG IN AT CRW AND EKN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE....NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...WITH A FEW-SCT DECK AT OR ABOVE 4KFT. WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AGAIN TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST MAY NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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