Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 060645 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 245 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 830 PM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE...WITH NOT MANY FEATURES TO GRASP/CLUTCH AND RUN WITH. NARROW CAPE TO AROUND 25 THSD FT DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL EXPAND AREA OF 20 POPS FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS INTO EARLY EVENING IN LOWLANDS...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. DID ADD SOME THICKER FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING ELKINS. WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...STILL FAVORING THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AOA MOS GUIDANCE. MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL THAT CLOUDS COULD FORM THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...MAKING MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TOUGHER. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY...SO CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THERE. THE 700 MB RIDGE CENTER TO OUR E TRIES TO GIVE A WEAK E FLOW INTO SW VA...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS EXTENDING SW TO OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES. && .MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CARLOLINAS WILL TRY TO MAKE IT OVER THE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGHOUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM LOW ALONG THE COAST...AND SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND LESS HUMID AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 06Z WEDNESDAY THRU 06Z THURSDAY... WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE...WITH NOT MANY FEATURES TO GRASP/CLUTCH AND RUN WITH. TIL 16Z. SCT MID CLOUDS LOW LANDS...OCCASIONALLY BKN IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME LIFR FOG IN A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 12Z THAT RECEIVED SOME EARLIER RAIN....THIS INCLUDES EKN. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR IN FOG/HAZE 09Z TO 12Z ALONG SOME RIVERS... AFFECTING PKB...CKB...AND PKB. AFTER 16Z...THANKS TO A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. DRY ELSEWHERE. PREVAILING VFR... SCT CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FEET AGL LOW LANDS. SCT-BKN 4000-7000 FEET AGL IN THE MOUNTAINS...BRIEFLY LOWER IN A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER 01Z...GENERALLY SCT MID CLOUDS...OCCASIONALLY BKN IN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY 4 TO 8 MPH THIS AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE...VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/06/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL NEAR TERM...KTB/30 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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