Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191838 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 238 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BEEN WRESTLING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE FAST FLOWS THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS AND THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES TO THROW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WITH AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT RAIN. SO...THERMODYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...NOT GETTING THE DEEPER CONVECTION THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE. ALSO ASSISTING IN THE SUPPRESSION IS THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING THAT HAS LARGELY CUT OFF THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THE EASTERN SLOPES STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BUT WILL KEEP ANY FLOOD WATCHES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAINFALL RATES JUST ARE NOT THERE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OVER TOWARDS THE WESTERN CWA/TRI STATE AREA...THIS IS WHERE SOME CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THIS AREA LIES ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CIRRUS COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME CLEARING RIGHT NOW OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO ORGANIZE...AND WITH THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SOUTHWESTERLY...THIS WOULD STEER IT TOWARDS THIS PARTICULAR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT HERE...AND SPC HAS RECENTLY ISSUED A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR THIS AREA. INTO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AFTER 09Z. HEATING WILL HELP WITH THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDER BASED ON SURFACE INSTABILITY AFTER 12Z AND IN THE EASTERN CWA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECT THE AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...AND IF ANY BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THIS WILL ONLY HELP TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. MODELS INDICATING 30-40 KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...SUGGESTIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...FZLVS AROUND 8000-9000 FEET SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CALMER...BUT COOLER...WEATHER TAKING HOLD. UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND THIS COMBINED WITH WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AT TIMES...WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERALL...WE LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BEST CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC FOR POPS/SKY/HIGH TEMPS. UNDERCUT WPC TEMPS A BIT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOUTHEAST WINDS GUST TO 25-35KTS THROUGH 00Z...SUBSIDING SLOWLY TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TURBULENT ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR CEILINGS FROM FORMING...INCLUDING BKW...DESPITE PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE SAME LOGIC FOLLOWS THE VISIBILITIES THAT SHOULD ONLY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 09Z MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS BETTER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS. COVERED THIS WITH VCTS/CB. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING/END MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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