Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021423 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1023 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS UPDATE... CIRRUS ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WERE ABLE TO DROP A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THEIR FORECAST VALUES THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SIG WX NIL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. BATCH OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN OVER NIGHT KEEPING THE SKY FROM CLEARING AFTER DIURNAL HEATING CUMULUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A RESULT OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE 925MB TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE MAY BE A TOUCH COLD TONIGHT...SO TRENDED THESE VALUES ABOVE THOSE NUMBERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... LOOKS MORE LIKE A SUMMER PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL WEAKEN...UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AS IT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. THIS LEAVES A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING ON MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL KEEP JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.IN ANY EVENT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80 TO 85. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ECMWF FROM YESTERDAY REPRESENTED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND...SO USED A BLEND OF IT WITH THE NAEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MID WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY. SOME MODELS KEEP THE FRONT COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE SOME BRING IT SOLIDLY INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE FRONT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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UPDATE.. VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ONCE HTS AND BKW COME UP FROM MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED WITH HEATING TODAY AT OR ABOVE 4KFT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD KEEP THIS DECK GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO STAY BELOW 8KTS OR SO TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JS/30 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JS

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