Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021748 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 148 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN MORE DRIER AIR AT THE HIGH AND LOW LEVELS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISAPATE AFTER SUNSET. HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...AFTER ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL START.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... LOOKS MORE LIKE A SUMMER PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL WEAKEN...UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AS IT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. THIS LEAVES A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING ON MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL KEEP JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.IN ANY EVENT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80 TO 85. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ECMWF FROM YESTERDAY REPRESENTED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND...SO USED A BLEND OF IT WITH THE NAEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MID WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY. SOME MODELS KEEP THE FRONT COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE SOME BRING IT SOLIDLY INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE FRONT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD DISAPATE AFTER SUNSET. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR IN RIVER FOG AT CRW AND EKN BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPATE AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/RPY NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JS

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