Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 160046 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 846 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 800 PM UPDATE... SHRA ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS HAS REALLY WANED OVER PAST FEW HRS AS BATTLE BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR OVER SE OH AND N WV AND MOIST AIR OVER NE KY AND S WV RAGES ON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVERNIGHT WITH A SHRA TRYING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE A BIT DURING THE PREDAWN ACROSS N ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE RUNNING FROM LAWRENCE OHIO THROUGH RLX AND INTO FAYETTE COUNTY. DEVELOPING LINE OF SHOWERS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY...BUT IS ISOLATED TO ABOUT 25 MILES WIDE. NAM DOES A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THIS IN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PROGS...AND WILL SEE THIS FEATURE DRIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL SEE A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE CWA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. NO THUNDER FOR THIS FORECAST WITH ZERO SURFACE BASED CAPE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODELS AGREE ON THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OVER A SLOWLY BUILDING EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE...TO EXIT TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION. THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THIS FEATURE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ESSENTIALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LEAD TO A DRIER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDS UNDER UPPER RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE AID OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE LONGER TERM IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO HAVE SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AS VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BLENDED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND WINDS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR PREVAILS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN THRU THE TAF PERIOD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASES HEADING INTO THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN...PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN TEMPORARY CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAINS. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE GUSTS IN THE TAF AT BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/16/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT VARIOUS TIMES THRU THE WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30/26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.