Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 010539 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 139 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INSTABILITY SHOWERS THEN LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS/SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 800 PM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FCST WITH THE EVE UPDATE. FINESSED POPS USING LATEST HRRR AS A BASE WHICH PIVOTS BANDS OF SHRA THRU OVERNIGHT ACROSS S ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO OH TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS CENTER. TONIGHT THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING EAST. FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV...NORTHEAST OH...AND SOUTHWEST VA TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS SOUTHEAST...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT ABUNDANT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING PERIODS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S LOWLANDS...INTO THE MID 50S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WANE FRI EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING AWAY. ANY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SAILS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND TO PROVIDE NICE WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA...BUT A WEAK S/W TROUGH CROSSING LATE SAT AND AN EVEN WEAKER ONE LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON CU...SO THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BRING A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. LEFT THE SCHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE WV MOUNTAINS SAT AFTERNOON ON ELEVATED HEATING...ALTHOUGH THE AREA MAY BE UNDERNEATH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE S/W COMING FROM THE W WHICH CROSSES SAT AFTERNOON AND NT. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND NORMAL IN THIS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PATTERN...EXCEPT HIGHS SAT WERE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND WERE LEFT ALONE IN LIGHT OF EARLY MAY SUNSHINE. TRIED TO TWEAK HIGHS SUNDAY UPWARD TOWARD THE LATEST MEX...AGAIN IN TH EARLY MAY SUN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD...MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHILE SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AS WE GO TOWARDS 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. FIGURE VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE A CONSISTENT ISSUE WITH CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING CEILING TONIGHT MAY NOT DEVELOP...OR MAY NEED MORE EXTENSIVE IFR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M L H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L H M H M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/RPY NEAR TERM...ARJ/30/26 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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