Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221902 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 302 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS...WITH POST FRONTAL SHRA DISSIPATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND AND DEWPTS TO MIX DOWN WHILE KEEPING WINDS GUSTY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU AT TIMES ACROSS N ZONES WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHSN OVER THE N HIGH TERRAIN. FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM OVER THE LOWLANDS HAS NOW STARTED. THANKFULLY...LINGERING GRADIENT PUFF AND LARGE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST AT BAY. SOME CONCERN OVER NE KY AND SW VA...CLOSER TO LIGHTER FLOW. HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE LOCATIONS. UP N...TEMPS TRICKY REGARDING SUB FRZ. THINK GRADIENT WIND WILL KEEP NUMBERS ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE OVER N ZONES...SO NO HEADLINES UP THAT WAY. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE COOL AIR WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATOCU WILL BE ABUNDANT OVER PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N THIRD OF WV...WITH MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN S ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST...TO KEEP A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WIDESPREAD CLEARING...EXPECT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...MOST PARTS OF WV AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN BY FRI MORNING...TO PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING RIPPLES OF VORTICITY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ON SATURDAY...H850 WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION TO THE AREA. A WARM FRONT COULD LIFT NORTH BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS INCREASING TO HIGH LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE QUICKEST IN ITS QPF FIELD BRINGING THE BULK OF PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS BY 15Z SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SEEMS TO CATCH UP WITH THE NAM WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN AND BEST CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARDS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS...20 TO 30 KTS...AT TIMES THRU REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES BECOMING VFR WITH STRATOCU BASES AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FEET. WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL A PUFF...WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRATOCU SHOULD BE CONFINED TO N TAF SITES...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR BASES FOR KEKN AT TIMES TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THURSDAY WITH LOW END VFR STRATOCU ACROSS N TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING PRIME MIXING HRS...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON OVER N TAF SITES COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/26 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...30

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