Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020630 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 230 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SIG WX NIL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. BATCH OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN OVER NIGHT KEEPING THE SKY FROM CLEARING AFTER DIURNAL HEATING CUMULUS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A RESULT OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE 925MB TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE MAY BE A TOUCH COLD TONIGHT...SO TRENDED THESE VALUES ABOVE THOSE NUMBERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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LOOKS MORE LIKE A SUMMER PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL WEAKEN...UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AS IT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. THIS LEAVES A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING ON MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL KEEP JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.IN ANY EVENT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80 TO 85.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ECMWF FROM YESTERDAY REPRESENTED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND...SO USED A BLEND OF IT WITH THE NAEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MID WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY. SOME MODELS KEEP THE FRONT COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE SOME BRING IT SOLIDLY INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE FRONT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GUIDANCE STILL NOT SUPPORTING FOG LATE TONIGHT. 925MB WIND AROUND 15KTS OVER THE LOWLANDS WOULD SUPPORT THE GUIDANCE DESPITE RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WILL GO WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AND WILL WATCH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS TO SEE IF AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. CEILINGS WILL STAY VFR. WINDS LESS THAN 8KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS QUESTION AND MAY MATERIALIZE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/02/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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