Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011623 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1223 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY PER COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLEARING...EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES IS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV. PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS COOLERS WHERE ABUNDANT CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... UPDATE... SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY SPREADING SHOWERS...MOST PLENTIFUL IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING THE CWA IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. AS MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOWEST 100MB WILL DRY OUT LEAVING CUMULUS FORMATION FOR THE LOWLANDS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL RETAIN SOME MOISTURE DEPTH ABOVE THE MIXING LAYER WHICH WILL LEAVE SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. THE CHANCES WILL BE BETTER OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WHERE LOW TOP THUNDER CHANCES EXIST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING AND THE ASSOCIATED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHER 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AREA...SO WILL SEE A VARIATION IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF MAX TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS ACROSS THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...AND RESIDING THERE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THIS UPPER HIGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE DOMINATING FACTOR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING. THUS...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER. IN ANY CASE...WITH A WARMING UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING OVER THIS PERIOD...WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS WOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD...MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT CEILINGS TO SLOWLY CLIMB TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z TODAY AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING DRIES OUT THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME -SHRA AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ONLY VFR CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TODAY. CLEARING IS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LATE MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SHOWN THE TREND TOWARDS IFR LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLIMBING CEILINGS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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