Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 182320 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 720 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY HERALDS COOLER WEATHER. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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IN EARLY EVENING UPDATE...WENT A BIT COOLER SUNDAY IN THE SE UPSLOPE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO RISE MUCH...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL WITH ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH THRU INDIANA SUNDAY...925 MB FLOW AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD 00Z MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE GUSTS. HARD TO FIGURE SURFACE GUSTS IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS. GUSTS MAY DECREASE WITH ONSET ON SHOWERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW TROUGH AXIS AND A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH TRACK FROM OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AFTER 06Z...FIRST HITTING THE TUG FORK VALLEY...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEAVIER RAIN PATCHES POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY PASSING AREAS OF LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOWS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE STOUT...WITH A SOMEWHAT RARE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT COULD PEAK OUT IN THE 65KT RANGE. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK QUITE INTERESTING...BUT DRYING BELOW 900MB IN THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINTS DOWN AND THUS ELIMINATE THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY. KEEP THE INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AREA AGAIN...AND ONLY HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS REGION. ALSO OF NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP LOADING AS WELL. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND THE WARM FRONT...AND DOWN TOMORROW GIVEN THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/RAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BEFORE A COLD FRONT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TOWARD THE EARLIER PART OF THE DAY MONDAY...SO THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA AND POPS ACTUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE SPEED OF THE TWO SYSTEMS LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT COMES ACROSS...WITH A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL...WE LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BEST CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC FOR POPS/SKY/HIGH TEMPS. UNDERCUT WPC TEMPS A BIT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CONFIDENCE LOWERED FROM HIGH TO MEDIUM. ONE REASON WAS TRYING TO DETERMINE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. ALSO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL DROP IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BECKLEY. STILL CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT RANGE IN THE WESTERN DOWNSLOPE CORRIDOR AROUND CRW TO CKB AND EVEN EKN...DURING THE SHOWERS IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. THINKING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY WILL REACH THE GROUND...SO AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR LLWS IN PLACES LIKE CRW AND HTS AROUND DAWN SUNDAY IF WINDS REMAIN JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ONLY POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IS FORESEEN IN THE TRI STATE AROUND HUNTINGTON AFTER 21Z SUNDAY...WITHIN THE SHARP SW TO NE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT GRADIENT. THIS INCLUDES EXTREME SRN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA. BY 15Z SUNDAY...HAVE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING THE BKW VCNTY. WITH THAT FLOW PERSISTING...HAVE IFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THESE EASTERN SLOPES...EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TREND DOWN TOWARD 00Z MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REACH SURFACE...THEY MAY BE A FEW HOUR WIND FOR LLWS HTS-CRW VCNTY AROUND 10 TO 13Z SUNDAY. ALSO...TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF IFR CEILINGS AT BECKLEY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KTB

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