Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190606 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 206 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY HERALDS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...AS ANOTHER FOLLOWS MID-LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 200 AM UPDATE... CONTINUED THE EVENING IDEA OF SLOWING POPS A BIT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST W OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WRFARW SEEMED TO HAVE HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...WAS A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE SHOWERS NORTH ON SUNDAY...INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. FIGURING THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DELAYED THE ONSET IN THE WESTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. AFTER THE INITIAL SUPPORT AND SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH...THE STRONG DEW POINT BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM THE TUG FORK VALLEY ON NW INTO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR UPSTREAM - TO THE WEST. CONVECTION COULD FORM TO OUR WEST AND REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EVENING. WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REACHING AS FAR EAST AS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND THE HTS TRI STATE...BUT ALSO ALONG THE KY BORDER TO INCLUDE OUR 2 IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY END BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BEFORE A COLD FRONT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TOWARD THE EARLIER PART OF THE DAY MONDAY...SO THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA AND POPS ACTUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE SPEED OF THE TWO SYSTEMS LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT COMES ACROSS...WITH A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL...WE LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BEST CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC FOR POPS/SKY/HIGH TEMPS. UNDERCUT WPC TEMPS A BIT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS ON WET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE FOUND AT BKW ON STRONG AND GU STY SE FLOW...WITH PEAK GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KTS. CIGS THERE COULD GET CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO IFR RANGE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IN DURATION IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA W OF THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CRW CKB AND EKN. THUNDER IS NOT FCST...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE HTS TRI STATE AREA SUNDAY EVENING NEAR THE SFC WARM FRONT. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW SLOWLY INCREASING AND VEERING TO SE OVERNIGHT...AND BECOMING GUSTY SE ON SUNDAY AND THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING S TO SE SUNDAY NT. MODERATE SE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG SUNDAY STARTING EARLY ON...AND THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME S TO SW SUNDAY NT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING IF SFC WINDS DO NOT START TO PICK UP BY DAWN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT REACH SURFACE...THEY MAY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR LLWS HTS-CRW VCNTY AROUND 10 TO 13Z SUNDAY. ALSO...TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF IFR CEILINGS AT BECKLEY COULD VARY..FCST IS CURRENTLY RIGHT AT THE MVFR THRESHOLD /1KFT/ 15Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/19/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

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