Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280547 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES TODAY. MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH WEDNESDAY FROM WEAKENING SOUTHERN SYSTEM. NORTHERN TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 730 PM UPDATE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON MEASURABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF WV...PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 3500-4000 FEET...ANY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE GRAUPEL. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...GENERALLY ABOVE 3500 FEET. BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...SOME CLEARING AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE IN. THINKING SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IN COORDINATION WITH ILN...WILL HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. MORGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE IFFY. WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR THERE. WILL HAVE EVENING SHIFT KEEP AN EYE ON IT. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND SPLIT FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. OVERALL...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD. SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES OUT OF THE DEEP S AND OPENS UP AS IT PASSES S OF THE AREA WED...THIS AS A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS E OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE...YET ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN DIGS SEWD SW OF THE AREA AND THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS THU. THIS KICKS THE SRN STREAM FEATURE TO THE CAROLINA COAST. WHILE THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS WELL S OF THE AREA WED...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD SHOWERS FROM S TO N ON WED...THE LATE APRIL HEATING ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE INCREASING COVERAGE. HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH COVERAGE DECREASES WED NT BEFORE THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE OVERNIGHT WED NT INTO THU...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN MAXIMIZE MIDDAY THU INTO THU AFTERNOON IN THE LATE APRIL HEATING BENEATH LOW HEIGHTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PASSING JUST SW OF THE AREA. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER N CENTRAL WV ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE E OF THE OHIO RIVER. NO MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AND PW VALUES TOO LOW FOR ANY WATER CONCERNS...KILLING SOME SPRING CLOCK. TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ADJUSTED LOWS UP A BIT WED NT VIA THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV. H85 TEMPERATURES NEVER GET BELOW 2 OR 3C SO SNOW NOT A CONCERN EVEN OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM MARKS A PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER...EVOLVING INTO SLIGHT RIDGING BY DAY 7. OVERALL...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE...SO WILL SEE A WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW POPS THAT DO NOT CLIMB HIGHER THAN LOW END CHANCE. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF LOWERING TO SOME MVFR 2 TO 3 THSD FT CEILINGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES INCLUDING CKB TO EKN 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY...AND MAY REACH DOWN TOWARD BKW. SOME MVFR IN VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN DEEP SHELTERED VALLEYS VCNTY KI16 AND S TOWARD GRUNDY VA FOR 08Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL THROUGH 18Z THEN 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL MOSTLY SCATTERED. MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CEILINGS OVER WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MAY LINGER LONGER TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BY 18Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/28/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L H H M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER FRIDAY MORNING OVER WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-075- 083>086. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...KTB

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